Lately I have been doing a deep dive into Rutherford County demographics using the Missioninsite community analysis tool that I have access to through the TBMB. Looking at Rutherford County, I’d like to make the following general observations about what we can currently see and project over the next 5 years plus. I realize the data from which I’m making these assumptions is for the county and may be somewhat different in your particular community. There is some uniformity across Rutherford County, but there are certainly differences between Murfreesboro, Smyrna, LaVergne … between our rural and suburban areas. But I believe these observations are broad enough that they will relate to every church regardless of setting. Some of these will be obvious - facts that we’ve known anecdotally by just living in Rutherford County and observing the significant change and growth.
1. We have grown and will continue to grow – Rutherford County growth has been almost 30 % since 2010 and is projected to grow 10.8 % over the next 5 years. That is compared to the State’s projected growth of only 3.3%. The interesting point of this growth is that family households are growing as fast as the population indicating that the increase population per household is from additional children.
2. Ethnic stability over the next 5 years, with slight percentage growth in Asians, Hispanics, and African Americans – There is definitely ethnic change occurring in Rutherford County, but it is not happening at the dynamic rates that are happening in more urban contexts. However, since 2010, there have been growth in every ethnic group measured (Asian, African American, Hispanic/Latino) except whites which have decreased 2.26%.
3. We are getting older and younger at the same time – Over the next 10 years the projections are that ages 17 years and younger and ages 55 years and older will increase as a percentage of the total population. As a comparison to the State, Rutherford County is younger and is experiencing growth of children of school age (as evidenced by the building of the need of more schools).
4. The time to reach school age children is now – The good news is that Rutherford County has significant school aged children especially at the early elementary (5-9) and the late elementary to middle school (10-14) levels. Rutherford’s comparative index (Rutherford County compared to State) is significantly higher among early elementary (5-9). However, early elementary (5-9) is projected to decline as a percentage of children from ages 5 to 17. In other words, children are aging through, but not being replaced at the same rate at the younger levels.
5. We have economic stability in moderate prosperity – The average household income is $84,902 and is projected to grow by 12.7% to $95,678 over the next 5 years. The number of families with annual incomes above $100,000 is 35.4% of all family incomes and is projected to grow in the next five years. While poverty is always an issue, Rutherford County’s percentage of the population living below the poverty line is lower than the national average (11.1% versus 12.3%). While obviously not as prosperous as neighboring Williamson County, Rutherford has general economic diversity and a stable middle and upper middle-class population.
6. We are characterized by a traditional family structure – That is, of the households with children under 18, married couple households are increasing as a percentage while single parent households are decreasing. Rutherford’s percentage of single parent households with children is less than the state. For example, married households with children have gone from 68.2 % (2010) to 72.1% (2020) and is projected to grow to 72.4% in 2026. By contrast, single parent households have gone from 31.8% (2010) to 27.9% (2020) and is projected to be 27.6% in 2026. While this does not indicate that there shouldn’t be an emphasis on ministering to single parent households (28% is still a significant number), it does show that in comparison to other counties and regions, the family structure is characterized by a higher percentage of married couple households with children.
7. Local marital status trends reveal national developments on marriage and singleness – Although Rutherford County marital status reveals a community of adults more likely to be married than the state average, the percentage decline of married adults fell from 55.7% (2010) to 51.3% (2020) and is projected to hold at 51.3% over the next five years. The percentage single, never married, in Rutherford County is higher than the state average and is projected to grow as a percentage over the next five years. Although there is no way to measure, it can be assumed that a portion of the single, never married group, are couples living together.
8. Post Highschool Education is becoming more common - The educational attainment level of adults has been rising over the past few years and it projected to continue to grow. When compared to the state, the educational attainment of adults, especially in the some college, associate degree, bachelor’s degree categories, is higher. Obviously, the presence of MTSU contributes to rising education levels.
9. A continued occupation status shift – Rutherford County continues to shift from a blue collar to a while collar occupation driven economy. The white collar/blue collar worker percentage for Rutherford County is 61.5% and 38.5% respectively.
There are many implications to these demographic trends in Rutherford County. Clearly, there are more than I can delineate in this article. But here are just a few of the more obvious inferences.
Our mission field is growing, and we must prepare to reach it – We need our existing churches to be healthy and we need new churches if we are going to seize this opportunity harvest before us.
Our mission field is more diverse, and we must intentionally target it – The exciting thing about our Rutherford County mission field is that God is increasingly bringing the world to us. If we consider ourselves to be Great Commission Baptists, then we have both a duty and privilege to reach those whom He is bringing.
Churches must get family ministry correct – There is so much of Rutherford County’s culture that centers on families. A growing number of school age children, the above average percentage of married households with children are just a few of the demographic trends that point toward “family” being an essential focus for our churches. Without making the family an idol, churches that are going to be effective in reaching the Rutherford County mission field are going to be those who figured out an effective family ministry for their particular context.
Aging Baby Boomers remain an evangelistic target – As mentioned above, Rutherford County is becoming older and ages over 55 are increasing as a percentage of population. Many of these aging Baby Boomers are disconnected from Christ and the church and are still looking for purpose as they live out their retirement years.
We have the economic foundation to carry out God’s mission – Rutherford County is generally a prosperous area and that means most of our churches exist in areas where there is economic stability and vitality. I realize this may not be true for every church context – there remains areas of economic hardship in Rutherford County. However, the resources that are in the Rutherford County harvest field should be sufficient for our churches to fuel the mission of God locally, nationally, and internationally.
A continued paradigm shift among churches is needed to reach more educated/white collar populations – Obviously this does not mean that we do not focus on reaching less educated/blue collar. In fact, there are tags of connection between both groups, and we have many churches that have done a good job in reaching both. However, some of our churches are rooted in ways of doing ministry that appealed to a blue-collar way of doing things many years ago. As Rutherford County grows out into the less populated areas with people who come with more education and white-collar occupations, churches will need to adjust to reach them.
Ministry to singles will need to be a focus for some churches – Rutherford County is growing in singles, particularly in the single, never married category. Some of these will be young professionals moving into the area for their first job. Others will choose to remain here after they graduate from MTSU. There are numerous philosophies of singles ministry. However, the important point is that churches recognize this rising demographic and develop strategies to reach them for Christ and incorporate them into the family of the church.
In my opinion, there has never been a more exciting time to live in Rutherford County. It’s exciting because our mission field is growing and changing. I’d much rather live and minister in a growing and dynamic mission field than one that is stagnant and declining. If we’re going to reach the mission field that God has given us, then it’s our missiological task to have a good understanding of what that mission field looks like. That’s what a good demographic deep dive can help us with. With that being said, we are now able to generate demographic reports for your church free of charge. You will need to contact Michaela by email at: michaela.malkiewicz@concordbaptists.org. She will just need to know the radius of the survey that you want, e.g., 1, 2, 3, 5 miles. Generally speaking, the more rural the church, the larger the radius, and the more urban the church, the smaller the radius of study. If you need help with interpretation of data, I’d be glad to come and help explain.
In His Service,
Dr. Wes Rankin
Director of Missions
Concord Baptist Association
219-615-9774
615-890-6409
wes.rankin@concordbaptists.org
concordbaptists.org